Kenya's gambling regulator plans a separate licence for prediction markets
Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority plans a special licence category for prediction markets, which it considers gambling because they involve chance. No start date or licence criteria have been published, and the details come from trade reports of an interview with the regulator.
This is a Kenyan plan and does not change South African law, where no online casino licence exists and the status of prediction markets is not settled. It shows one African regulator choosing to licence event-contract platforms as gambling, which is useful context for the same debate here. Unlicensed platforms leave players with little recourse over payouts.
What the Kenyan regulator said
Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) plans to create a separate licence category for prediction markets, according to reports published on 29 October 2026. These are platforms where people take positions on whether future events will happen, such as election results, sports outcomes or economic figures.
The plan comes from an interview with the GRA's director general, Peter Karimi, which Business Daily published on 18 October and which Global Gaming Insider and iGaming Afrika then reported. We could not open the original interview, so everything below rests on that trade coverage. The regulator has not announced a start date or application requirements.
Why the GRA treats these markets as gambling
As reported, Mr Karimi said the authority reads gambling as being mainly about games of chance, and that a prediction is by definition about a future outcome, so no skill is involved. On that reading, prediction markets fall inside gambling regulation instead of sitting outside it.
The Gambling Control Act 2025 already lists licences for online bookmakers, online lotteries and online casinos, and lets other categories be set through regulations. The coverage suggests that route could be used to add a prediction-market category. No licence criteria have been published yet.
Crypto, cross-border access and unlicensed use
The reports say the GRA is looking closely at two issues. One is cryptocurrency payments, since some platforms take crypto for sign-up and withdrawals. The other is cross-border access, because some services are built for United States users only while others accept customers elsewhere.
Business Daily reported on 18 October that Kenyan users were already trading on three unlicensed platforms: 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit. Existing Kenyan online gambling rules already cover payments, age verification, advertising and regulator access to transaction data, and the GRA is expected to look at how those controls apply here.
What it means for South African players
Nothing changes in South Africa because of a Kenyan plan. The National Gambling Act still governs here, and no local licence exists for online casino games. Where prediction markets fit in South African law is a separate question that we have not seen settled.
The Kenyan approach is one example of a regulator choosing to bring these products under a gambling licence, with the usual age checks and payment rules. Platforms that are not licensed anywhere you live give you little recourse if a payout is disputed. Stakes on any of these products are real money at risk, not income.
What to watch next
- Whether the GRA publishes licence criteria and fees for the new category.
- How it handles crypto-funded and foreign-based platforms already used by Kenyans.
- Whether other African regulators follow with their own rules for event contracts.
We will update this brief if the GRA publishes anything first-hand.