NFL asks US Supreme Court to let states police sports prediction markets

What the NFL filed

The National Football League filed an amicus brief with the US Supreme Court on 8 October 2026, according to the court's public docket and to reports from ESPN, CNBC and iGaming Business. The brief supports New Jersey's request for the court to review Flaherty v. KalshiEX, case number 26-299. Thirty-nine state attorneys general and the District of Columbia filed their own supporting brief a day earlier.

The league's argument is short. It says regulating gambling is one of the sovereign police powers of the states, that sports event contracts work like bets, and that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has too few staff to protect the integrity of sport. The NFL points out that state gambling regulators employ hundreds of people, while the CFTC has 543 for the whole country.

The legal question behind it

Kalshi is a prediction market registered with the CFTC. It says its sports contracts are swaps, a type of financial derivative, so federal law overrides state gambling rules. New Jersey and many other states say the contracts are sports bets and need a state licence.

Federal appeals courts have split. The Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in April 2026, while the Ninth and Sixth Circuits went the other way. That conflict is the main reason the states want the Supreme Court to step in. Kalshi has until 9 November to respond, and the court is not expected to decide whether to take the case before December.

Why the NFL is involved

The league says integrity is its main worry. It told the court that on the first Sunday of the 2026 season, about $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction market trading was linked to the NFL. It also objects to contracts it sees as easy to manipulate, such as whether a kicker misses a field goal or which penalty comes next.

Kalshi and Polymarket both say they take integrity seriously. Kalshi said it actively polices sports markets and wants to work with the league. The NBA's commissioner, Adam Silver, has said he prefers a federal standard, so the sports leagues are not united on the answer.

What it means for South African players

Nothing in the filing applies to South Africa, and none of these platforms is licensed here. Gambling in South Africa is regulated by the National Gambling Board and nine provincial boards, and no local licence exists for online casino games. A product that looks like a bet is likely to be treated as one by a South African court as well.

• Check any operator against the NGB verified operators tool before depositing.
• Be wary of apps that avoid the word gambling in their marketing.
• Set a budget and treat any wager as entertainment with a real chance of loss.

What to watch next

Watch for Kalshi's response by 9 November and for the court's decision on whether to hear the case, which could come in December or later. A ruling in either direction would set the US rules for sports prediction markets for years.

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