Consultancy warns a doubled UK machine games duty could shut 4,000 betting shops
Regulus Partners modelled a doubling of the UK machine games duty to 40% and projected as many as 4,000 betting shop closures within three years and a £92 million annual hit to horse racing. The British Horseracing Authority urged the government to weigh this before the Budget.
This is UK tax policy and does not apply to South Africa. It matters only as an example of what happens when gambling taxes rise: operators cut costs, shops close, and industry voices warn that customers may drift to unlicensed products. South Africa has its own debate over provincial taxes and over unlicensed online betting, and the same trade-off is likely to come up. It does not change how you should check licences or terms before you play.
What happened
Regulus Partners, a gambling consultancy, published modelling on what a doubling of the UK Machine Games Duty to 40% would do. The British Horseracing Authority responded on 2 October 2026 with a statement calling the findings a stark warning. iGaming Business reported the analysis on 5 October, ahead of the UK autumn Budget, which it says is due later this month.
The detail
The figures below are Regulus projections as reported by iGaming Business, not official forecasts.
- A 40% duty would add roughly £45,000 of annual cost per betting shop.
- Up to 4,000 shops could close within three years, leaving about 1,500, around a quarter of today's estate.
- Horse racing would lose about £92 million a year, roughly a third of its income from betting, according to Regulus and the BHA.
- MGD receipts could fall by about 32% to around £155 million if the closures happen, which would undercut the Treasury case for the rise.
The BHA statement says British racing supports 85,000 jobs and urges the government to consider the knock-on effect on prize money, levy funding and equine welfare research.
iGaming Business adds that other voices have pushed back: Deutsche Bank estimated the greatest burden would fall on Rank Group, Entain's chief executive warned that up to £1 billion of stakes could shift to the black market, and Fred Done said Betfred would close 495 shops within a year. These are industry warnings and interested parties, and the Budget outcome is not yet known.
What it means for South African players
You will not notice any change from this. It is a useful reminder that tax policy shapes the market, including how many licensed options exist and how attractive unlicensed ones become. For South African players, the practical point stays the same: remote casino games are not licensed here, so check the operator's licence and terms yourself, and do not treat a bonus or a big brand name as proof of safety.
Keep gambling to money you can afford to lose, set limits, and seek help early if play stops being fun.
What to watch next
The UK Budget will show whether the duty rise goes ahead, is reduced or is dropped. We will report if the outcome changes the picture for operators with a presence in South Africa.