Australia's securities regulator says it is not convinced retail prediction markets serve the public interest
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission said on 30 October 2026 that it is not currently convinced retail prediction markets are in the public interest, because their all-or-nothing contracts resemble bets and share features with binary options, which Australia bans for retail clients. It also warned that people using offshore platforms have no protection under Australian law.
This is not a South African ruling and it does not change anything for players here. It matters because prediction markets are being argued over in South Africa as well, and the core question is the same one ASIC raises: is a contract on a sporting result an investment, or a bet? South African readers should note that offshore platforms sit outside local consumer protection in much the same way ASIC describes for Australians. Prediction markets are not casino games, and nothing here says they are legal or illegal in South Africa.
What ASIC said
On 30 October 2026 the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) published a short statement attributed to its chair, Sarah Court. Its central line is that ASIC is not currently convinced that prediction markets for retail clients are in the public interest.
The regulator describes prediction market contracts as having all the features of a bet. They are highly speculative and typically pay out on an all-or-nothing basis depending on whether a particular event happens. ASIC gives examples such as whether it will rain tomorrow or whether a sports team will win, and says many such events have nothing to do with investment. That raises a question over whether the contracts can fairly be called investment products at all.
The binary options comparison
ASIC links prediction markets directly to binary options, which Australia prohibits for retail clients. It banned the sale of binary options to retail clients in 2021 and later extended that ban for a decade, citing data that up to 77% of retail clients had lost money, a combined $14 million in the year in question.
The statement adds that the two products are structured differently in one respect. Prediction market contracts are generally offered through a market platform, while binary options were sold over the counter through brokers. ASIC says it sees its approach as consistent with that taken by regulators in parts of Europe and the UK, who have restricted access to event contracts with similar characteristics.
Integrity risks and offshore platforms
ASIC also points to market integrity risks. These include the misuse of confidential information, market manipulation and disputes over how an outcome is decided.
- Australians who use offshore prediction markets directly do not have protections under Australian law.
- Australian financial services licensees that help people reach offshore prediction markets still carry all of their licence obligations.
The statement ties the public interest test to section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001, which ASIC must consider when deciding whether to grant an Australian market licence. It is a statement of current concerns, not a formal ruling on every prediction-style product, and ASIC notes that media releases are point-in-time statements.
What it means for South African players
Nothing changes in how you can play or bet in South Africa because of this. The relevance is the argument underneath it. Regulators in several countries are deciding whether prediction markets belong under financial rules or gambling rules, and the answer decides what protections a customer gets.
If a platform is based offshore and holds no licence that applies to you, you should assume that complaint routes and consumer protections are weak or absent. The same caution applies to any offshore gambling site, which is why our casino pages separate "not licensed in South Africa" from "accepts South African players". Treat any product that pays out on real-world events as a bet with real risk of loss, not as a way to make money.
What to watch next
ASIC has said any future application for a market licence would be assessed against the public interest test, so watch for whether any operator applies. Other regulators are also still choosing between licensing prediction markets and restricting them, so expect more statements of this kind in the coming months.